Measure I Revenues Defy Expectations, Posting Robust Year-over-Year Growth
A comprehensive, well-maintained, and effective road and transit network is important for commuters to get to and from their jobs. It is also essential for efficient goods movement through the region and for visitors and tourists to access the natural and recreational opportunities available throughout the county. Consistent and adequate investment in the county’s transportation system reflects a commitment to supporting the economic vitality and quality of life of the region. This indicator measures planned investment in the county’s transportation system, including investments in state highways, local highways, and transit (bus and rail), as reported in the biennial Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Federal Transportation Improvement Program (FTIP).[1] It also tracks investment through the local sales tax for transportation known as Measure I.
TREND
Measure I
Bucking expectations, after a modest pandemic-induced retraction in 2019/20 (-3%), Measure I revenue rebounded in 2020/21 (+24%) and continued to climb in 2021/22 (+13%). Revenue actuals in 2021/22 reached $250 million. Growth is projected to taper off in coming years, rising just 6% between 2021/22 and 2025/26 to an estimated $265 million.
FTIP Planned Investment
Compared to the 2021-26 funding cycle, per capita planned transportation investment in San Bernardino County for the 2023-28 funding cycle jumped 33%, while planned investment rose only 9% for Riverside County, and fell for both Los Angeles and Orange counties (-4% and -34%, respectively).
MEASURE I REVENUE REBOUNDS AFTER SLIGHT PANDEMIC-INDUCED RETRACTION
Actual and Forecast Measure I Revenue (in Millions) for San Bernardino County Transportation Projects, 2011/12-2025/26
GEOGRAPHIC COMPARISON
FTIP Planned Investment
In the current (2023-28) funding cycle, the planned transportation investment is equivalent to $2,394 per capita in San Bernardino County. This is less than Riverside County ($2,972) and more than Los Angeles County ($1,819) and Orange County ($452).
PLANNED TRANSPORTATION INVESTMENT JUMPED IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
County Comparison of 2023-2028 Planned per Capita Transportation Investment and Percent Change in Planned per Capita Investment Since 2021-26 Funding Cycle
Source: Southern California Association of Governments, 2023 Federal Transportation Improvement Program
| County | 2023-2028 Planned per Capita Investment | Percent Changes Since 2021-26 Funding Cycle |
|---|---|---|
| Orange | $452 | -34% |
| Los Angeles | $1,819 | -4% |
| San Bernardino | $2,394 | 33% |
| Riverside | $2,962 | 9% |
Transportation Funding Sources
Through the mid 1990’s, state and federal funding accounted for nearly 75% of total transportation funding in San Bernardino County. As of the latest funding cycle (2023-2028), state and federal funding account for just 29% of transportation funding with local funds making up the remaining 71%.
71% OF TRANSPORTATION DOLLARS ARE LOCALLY SOURCED
County Comparison of the Proportion of Transportation Funding that is from Local, State and Federal Sources, 2023-2028 Funding Cycle
[1] The Federal Transportation Improvement Program (FTIP) is a list of transportation projects to be implemented over a six-year period, including local, state and federally-funded projects, in the SCAG region, which includes San Bernardino, Los Angeles, Riverside, and Orange counties. The FTIP is updated every odd-numbered year.